ALPHAS-bet

Where all the ALPHAS come to play...

ODDS RANT
Hello boys and girls.

Today we are going to learn a little about math. More specifically about GAMBLING MATH.  Doesn't that sound like fun?

Now this isn't for all you out there that understand the basic concepts of win % and how betting odds affects your break even point.  This is for the people that think the odds don't have "that much of an effect" on how much they need to win.

I see them everywhere. Claiming "great" winning percentages of 57%... That's not that amazing at certain levels. Look I know its damn near impossible to hit 60% long term. Sure we can all advertise great runs(look at us on 8-0 run). We've all been there we've all done it. Hell I started 2015 8-0. But 90% of us know it doesn't last. So we're more than happy with 57% maybe 54%... But should we be?

Here comes the fun I mentioned.
              
I see everyday, people "buying points" or going straight to the ML for a "sure winner". The problem is, the odds associated with these " moves" dramatically change. Go from the typical -110 to -120 or worse. I don't know how often I see -150 or -170 from certain people. And worse yet -250 or -410(Habs tonight).

Then there is some genius out there trying to teach everyone about the benefits of +$. Can't remember his name but wow, how smart is he(we'll show you in a bit)  

OK so Mr... Or Mrs. point buyer is betting average odds of... Let's say -150.  What is their break even point?

Well sadly it's NOT the 52.35% they might think it is. Now this capper is doing well and hitting 58% of their bets. LUCKY CLIENTS. They found themselves a good one. WOAH. Hold your horses. Does this client/free tailer know that they need to hit 59.88%? SAY WHAT?!?!? Ya, I'd want my money back too.

Take it one step further(let's go a bit extreme and use an example from tonight) The Habs were -410... MINUS FOUR HUNDRED AND TEN! OK let's admit that these people don't always play that extreme. But let's also admit it happens WAY more than you think. Now these "guaranteed winners" are sure to hit more than 52.35%... Hell let's say they hit 75% of the time. This capper must be a fucken genius(no he's not our plus money capping genius).  Well I hate to burst your bubble(well I kinda don't hate it) but to make any money At those odds... You need to win.... Are you ready for this? No I mean really ready. You need to hit........ 80.65%

WHAT. THE. FUCK. I know it's disturbing. But its the truth. DON'T FUCKEN DO IT!

What's worse is, I see these guaranteed winners thrown into 3 team(or bigger like 10 team) parlays. Now they have to hit 100% of the time. Why do you do that to yourself... Or your bankroll... Or worse, your clients/friends bankroll. That's a different topic because I admit parlays can be fun(I've hit some huge odds parlays) but keep them fun and don't make them apart of everyday betting.

Hope you didn't forget about our +$ friend. He has a TOTALLY different approach. One that some people understand. One that a lot of people make fun of because his win % is perhaps not the 55% people want. Maybe it's only 48% or heck only 52% if he has a "good" month.

Well here's the secret(tell everyone)

He doesn't need to hit 52.35%... Or 59.87 or heaven forbid the 80.65%
Let's take a look. Now this particular friend, his plays average odds of about +125.. Yes that's a PLUS sign you see not the normal minus sign. But we'll be a bit more conservative and say his odds are +115. Would you like to hazard a guess at what his break even point is?

Would you believe.... Only 46.51%(+115 odds) and only 44.44% (+125 odds)

YES... this smart little fucker(he's not that little he's 6'6" and almost 300lbs) can LOSE MORE OFTEN THAN HE WINS AND HE STILL MAKES MONEY.

FUCK ME how is that possible. Well its possible because of math... GAMBLING MATH... and a lack of a need to showboat a 60% win percentage(funny though cuz right now he's hitting 63.89%)

So I say to you... PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE reconsider playing so many bad odds plays... I understand -110 or -120 but worse than that and I cringe. Not everyone will feel comfortable always doing +$ but ask yourself. If you need to buy points(especially half a fucking point) how confident do you feel in that play? Maybe you should track and be honest how many of your plays finish within that half point. I know it seems like every night but I guarantee its not.  Be honest with yourselves. Stop throwing money away in getting odds at -120 or worse Back to parlays for a minute. Let's put 3 guaranteed winners (I think we all know they aren't guaranteed) into a parlay. Let's say -410... -800... -250

Basically gives us -110(I will NEVER know why you need a parlay to win what I can win in 1 play) Hell I can go 1-1 and still be profitable. You sure as hell can't. You MUST hit 3-0 and still not make as much money as me(well maybe a bit more)

We got off track.  So anyway, we have our guaranteed parlay. But how many of those actually win? I've seen a few tonight alone crash and burn.

So if you're doing a bunch of those parlays(I've seen worse) and they give you odds of -110(once calculated) then you basically need to hit 53%. So after 20 parlays you need to win 11 to be profitable. In those 11 you obviously go 3-0. Other 9 let's say you only lose 1 each.  You can have 51 wins and 9 loses(85% win percentage) and barely break even. 85 fucking percent and you barely break even. You just turned a break even of 53% into 85%. WHY IN THE GOOD NAME OF FUCK would you do that to yourself. OR YOUR FUCKING BANKROLL... OK enough ranting. Please, I just hope you learned something from this.
Just so you know the math is easy to figure out. Maybe I could've told you this at the beginning but then you would've been robbed the chance of reading my masterpiece.

Take your "american odds"
Let's say -150
Convert it to European odds
Works out to 1.67
Now formulate
1/European odds(1.67)
= .5988

American -410
Converts to 1.24
= .8065(80.65%) break even

Don't do this to yourself anymore

Drops the mic

 

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